Tuesday, 27 October, 2020

Election 2016 Predictions


It is time for the 2016 Election Day predictions…  Feel free to play along with the 2016 Pick ’em.

These selections are based on a model in progress that places a heavy influence on both race and industrial change since the 1990s.

This is by far, the most complicated election cycle that I have experienced.  We are in the midst of a potential reelection.  Hillary Clinton has quietly merged neoliberalism (think Reagan) and neoconservatism (think Bush) under the Democratic banner, while Donald Trump has revamped the Republican message into a populist, white nationalist tone.  This message is the exact opposite of the Romney post-mortem plan cobbled by Republicans, but it has been effective in shaking up the Democrats’ midwestern “blue wall” at the cost of losing the southwest.  As seen in the map to the right, new states like Arizona and Michigan are newfound battlegrounds, while others (Ohio and Missouri) are more settled towards their party.

In short, this race is incredibly difficult to project.

The map to the left reflects two major impulses: economic changes over the past 25 years and a focus of ethnicity, especially non-Cuban Hispanic voters.  This map includes several long-shots compared to poll-of-poll data compiled by many survey aggregators, but it produces a Trump victory by the closest possible margin: 270-268.

These projections use my issue-highlight model (probably to a fault), and make two broad assumptions: (1) Clinton will do well disproportionately well among non-Cuban Hispanics and (2) Trump will do disproportionately well among less educated whites in former manufacturing strongholds.  These assumptions are taken to an extreme in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, but this map (like many other iterations online) is not outside of the realm of possibility.  Assuming that the GOP remains in the Trumpkin stance, this map become more familiar moving forward.

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE – RACE BY RACE

Each of the 34 senate races are worth a point; the House of Representatives serves as a tiebreaker.

  • AL – Shelby
  • AK – Murkowski
  • AR – Boozman
  • AZ – McCain
  • CA – Harris
  • CO – Bennet
  • CT – Blumenthal
  • FL – Rubio
  • GA – Isakson
  • HI – Schatz
  • IA – Grassley
  • ID – Crapo
  • IL – Duckworth *Formerly Republican*
  • IN – Young
  • KS – Moran
  • KY – Paul
  • LA – Kennedy, after runoff
  • MD – Van Hollen
  • MO – Blunt
  • NC – Burr
  • ND – Hoeven
  • NH – Ayotte
  • NV – Cortez Masto
  • NY – Schumer
  • OH – Portman
  • OK – Lankford
  • OR – Wyden
  • PA – McGinty *Formerly Republican*
  • SC – Scott
  • SD – Thune
  • UT – Lee
  • VT – Leahy
  • WA – Murray
  • WI – Feingold *Formerly Republican*

51 Republicans -3 (-3 to Democrats)
47 Democrats +3 (+3 from Democrats)
02 Independents UC

If these projections stay in place, then the Senate remains under Republican countrol. There are a handful or close races (Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana) that could shift the upper chamber closer to a tie (broken by the Vice President) or even to the Democrats.

House of Representatives (Tie-Breaker)

231R – 204D

One comment on “Election 2016 Predictions

[…] every major media source (including both the “mainstream” and “alt-right” media), my 2016 Presidential election map is mighty close to accurate.  I missed Wisconsin (like everyone), North Carolina, and […]

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