Tuesday, 27 October, 2020

Category: Politics


My first major miss, the 2018 election cycle saw continued strength among Senate projections and diminishing success with the House of Representatives. Senate accuracy: 92.1% accuracy on average (128/139) 2018: 91.4% (32/35) 2016: 97.1% (33/34) 2014: 94.3% (33/35) 2012: 87.8% Read more…


Ran the numbers for the biannual pool…  There is plenty of noise in the model; for example, there could be a twenty seat swing towards the Democratic party in the House. **US SENATE**52 Republicans +1 (+1 from Democrats)46 Democrats -1 Read more…


As we mark the one year anniversary of Trump’s inauguration, the United States in the midst of a Crisis of Competence.  Congress is unable to pass budgets (or budget extensions) needed to keep the government open.  The British Parliament openly debated banning Read more…


As we prepare for the nation’s greatest tradition (the peaceful transition of power), it is time to take stock of where we are, where we have been, and where are we going.  A quick glance backward towards the Obama years reveals Read more…


In January, I made a series of predictions about the 2016 election.  Some where practically spot on, while others were a little bit off.  Here is a quick report card. Seat by Seat: A Unlike nearly every major media source (including both Read more…


It is time for the 2016 Election Day predictions…  Feel free to play along with the 2016 Pick ’em. These selections are based on a model in progress that places a heavy influence on both race and industrial change since the 1990s. Read more…


On January 1, I predicted that the 2016 election cycle would be an electoral realignment.  I was largely accurate; however I missed one main point: the changes to political discourse would threaten to fundamentally transform American politics in a way that Read more…


Six months into Trump’s run as President, it is clear that the United States is facing an extremely difficult, exceedingly complex set of problems without capably leadership.  Trump described this “American Carnage” in his inauguration speech.  After the jump, there Read more…


Voters in the United Kingdom have voted for the Brexit, a referendum for Great Britain to leave the European Union.  This is a monumental decision, which will have a large impact on the national, continental, and global economies.  This vote reflects a Read more…


If the United States were run like a successful business, then the political, policy, and public sector strategies would be strikingly different.  Politicians seeking to dismantle the government perpetuate a myth based on an oversimplified version of economics — which Read more…