Category: Forecasting

Ran the numbers for the biannual pool…  There is plenty of noise in the model, and many of the races came down to weather forecasts in key areas. (E.g., crummy … Read More

Trigger Warning This is a political post about a highly controversial election. You may find some of these findings to be offensive, disagree with your beliefs, or downright scary. These … Read More

Trigger Warning Hey! This is a political post, about a highly controversial election. You may find some of these findings to be offensive, disagree with your beliefs, or downright scary. … Read More

My first major miss, the 2018 election cycle saw continued strength among Senate projections and diminishing success with the House of Representatives. Senate accuracy: 92.1% accuracy on average (128/139) 2018: … Read More

Ran the numbers for the biannual pool…  There is plenty of noise in the model; for example, there could be a twenty seat swing towards the Democratic party in the … Read More

In January, I made a series of predictions about the 2016 election.  Some where practically spot on, while others were a little bit off.  Here is a quick report card. Seat by … Read More

It is time for the 2016 Election Day predictions…  Feel free to play along with the 2016 Pick ’em. These selections are based on a model in progress that places a … Read More

In the months leading up to the 2014 midterm election, I made a series of predictions.  Some where practically spot on, others were wildly erratic.  Here is a quick report … Read More

It is time for the 2014 Election Day predictions…  Feel free to play along with the 2014 Pick ’em. Each of the 36 senate races are worth a point; the … Read More

Eleven months out from election day, here are a few predictions about the 2014 political cycle. Forecasts have become a bit of a tradition.   Although I am no presidential … Read More