Tuesday, 27 October, 2020

Category: Forecasting


My first major miss, the 2018 election cycle saw continued strength among Senate projections and diminishing success with the House of Representatives. Senate accuracy: 92.1% accuracy on average (128/139) 2018: 91.4% (32/35) 2016: 97.1% (33/34) 2014: 94.3% (33/35) 2012: 87.8% Read more…


Ran the numbers for the biannual pool…  There is plenty of noise in the model; for example, there could be a twenty seat swing towards the Democratic party in the House. **US SENATE**52 Republicans +1 (+1 from Democrats)46 Democrats -1 Read more…


In January, I made a series of predictions about the 2016 election.  Some where practically spot on, while others were a little bit off.  Here is a quick report card. Seat by Seat: A Unlike nearly every major media source (including both Read more…


It is time for the 2016 Election Day predictions…  Feel free to play along with the 2016 Pick ’em. These selections are based on a model in progress that places a heavy influence on both race and industrial change since the 1990s. Read more…


In the months leading up to the 2014 midterm election, I made a series of predictions.  Some where practically spot on, others were wildly erratic.  Here is a quick report card. Seat by Seat: A- Of the 35 settled Senate elections, Read more…


It is time for the 2014 Election Day predictions…  Feel free to play along with the 2014 Pick ’em. Each of the 36 senate races are worth a point; the House of Representatives serves as a tiebreaker. AK- Sullivan *Formerly Read more…


Eleven months out from election day, here are a few predictions about the 2014 political cycle. Forecasts have become a bit of a tradition.   Although I am no presidential whisperer like Nate Silver, my legislative record is surprisingly decent. Read more…