Category: Forecasting

Trigger Warning This is a political post about a highly controversial election. You may find some of these findings to be offensive, disagree with your beliefs, or downright scary. These … Read More

Trigger Warning Hey! This is a political post, about a highly controversial election. You may find some of these findings to be offensive, disagree with your beliefs, or downright scary. … Read More

My first major miss, the 2018 election cycle saw continued strength among Senate projections and diminishing success with the House of Representatives. Senate accuracy: 92.1% accuracy on average (128/139) 2018: … Read More

Ran the numbers for the biannual pool…  There is plenty of noise in the model; for example, there could be a twenty seat swing towards the Democratic party in the … Read More

In January, I made a series of predictions about the 2016 election.  Some where practically spot on, while others were a little bit off.  Here is a quick report card. Seat by … Read More

It is time for the 2016 Election Day predictions…  Feel free to play along with the 2016 Pick ’em. These selections are based on a model in progress that places a … Read More

In the months leading up to the 2014 midterm election, I made a series of predictions.  Some where practically spot on, others were wildly erratic.  Here is a quick report … Read More

It is time for the 2014 Election Day predictions…  Feel free to play along with the 2014 Pick ’em. Each of the 36 senate races are worth a point; the … Read More

Eleven months out from election day, here are a few predictions about the 2014 political cycle. Forecasts have become a bit of a tradition.   Although I am no presidential … Read More