2022 Election Predictions

Ran the numbers for the biannual pool… 

There is plenty of noise in the model, and many of the races came down to weather forecasts in key areas. (E.g., crummy weather may weaken GOP preference for same-day voting in Nevada.) That said, it is plausible for the Democrats to pick up a seat (PA) and hold all other key races. It is also plausible for the Republicans to pick up several seats (AZ, CO, GA, NH, NV, and WA.)

Regardless, expect post-election shenanigans from the MAGA crowd

– especially in closer races like Arizona and Georgia.

51 Republicans +1 (+1 from Democrats)
47 Democrats -1 (-1 to Republicans)
02 Independents UC

AL – Britt (R)
AK – Tshibaka (R) def Murkowski in runoff

AR – Boozman (R)
AZ – Kelly (D)

CA – Padilla (D)
CO – Bennett (D)

CT – Blumenthal (D)
FL – Rubio (R)
GA – Walker (R) – flip from Warnock

HI – Schatz (D)
ID – Crapo (R)
IL – Duckworth (D)
IN – Young (R)
IA – Grassley (R)

KS – Moran (R)
KY – Paul (R)
LA – Kennedy (R)
MD – Van Hollen (D)
MO – Schmitt (R)
NC – Budd (R)
ND – Hoeven (R)

NH – Hassan (D)
NY – Schumer (D)

NV – Cortez-Masto (D)
OH – Vance (R)
OK – Lankford (R)
OK – Mullin (R)
OR – Wyden (D)
PA – Oz (R)
SC – Scott (R)
SD – Thune (R)
UT – Lee (R)
VT – Welch (D)
WA – Murray (D)

WI – Johnson (R)

231 Republicans – 204 Democrats

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