2020 Update

Trigger Warning

This is a political post about a highly controversial election. You may find some of these findings to be offensive, disagree with your beliefs, or downright scary.

These views are my own and do not represent any organization with whom I am affiliated. These comments are simply a political scientist participating in a fun “pick ’em” and trying to warn readers of a rough several weeks ahead.

– Sam

At 2:30a, Eastern Time, Donald John Trump called counting valid votes “a fraud on the republic.” This statement is unequivocally false, and likely an indication of how weak Trump feels his electoral hopes are.

At this time, I project that there are enough Biden votes in Nevada to claim a Democratic win. Georgia will be closer, but there are likely enough Biden votes in the Atlanta area to claim a Democratic win.

I also expect that there are enough absentee ballots in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to cover a “red mirage” and provide a “blue shift” for Biden.

Trump will likely hold on to North Carolina, however there are enough mail in absentee ballots that may be returned to swing the election back to Biden. I doubt that this will occur, but it is within the realm of possibility.

All together, Biden only needs two of the following states to win: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Taken together, Joseph R. Biden has very likely defeated Donald J. Trump, and will be elected the 46th President of the United States.

Trump’s Tantrum

Trump’s false allegations of fraud resembles a second rate autocrat, and is by far the most reckless decision that Trump has made. Those statements – combined with increased political violence by more extreme partisans – will almost assuredly end in increased political violence and potentially widespread political violence.

Trump demanded that states where he is ahead to stop counting votes, and he threatened to sue directly into the United States Supreme Court. There is no legal route to do so, and this threat is particularly unique considering the speed at which the Senate confirmed a relatively untried Supreme Court Justice during an election cycle.

Trump appears to be in denial of the process. Trump still has routes to victory, but at this time he seems to prefer the autocratic approach of suing to win rather than letting democratic institutions count votes.

It is not possible to adequately condemn Trump’s tantrum today.

Tentative Projection Results

Based on my previous map, it appears that I definitely missed on Texas. North Carolina and Wisconsin are likely misses as well, one for Trump and one for Biden.

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