Tuesday, 27 October, 2020

2018 Election Prediction Results


My first major miss, the 2018 election cycle saw continued strength among Senate projections and diminishing success with the House of Representatives.

Senate accuracy: 92.1% accuracy on average (128/139)

  • 2018: 91.4% (32/35)
  • 2016: 97.1% (33/34)
  • 2014: 94.3% (33/35)
  • 2012: 87.8% (29/33)
  • 2010: 89.2% (33/37)

House accuracy: within 8.2 seats on average

  • 2018: +17 Republicans
  • 2016: -10 Republicans
  • 2014: -10 Republicans
  • 2012: +4 Republicans
  • 2010: +/- 0

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