Wednesday, 12 August, 2020

Politics

Samuel Bassett

Formally trained as a mixed-methods researcher and armed with two decades of experience, political projections are often far more accurate than the traditional media.

2018 Election Prediction Results

December 15, 2018 Samuel Bassett

My first major miss, the 2018 election cycle saw continued strength among Senate projections and diminishing success with the House of Representatives. Senate accuracy: 92.1% accuracy on average (128/139) 2018: 91.4% (32/35) 2016: 97.1% (33/34) 2014: 94.3% (33/35) 2012: 87.8% Read more…

2018 Election Projections

November 1, 2018 Samuel Bassett

Ran the numbers for the biannual pool…  There is plenty of noise in the model; for example, there could be a twenty seat swing towards the Democratic party in the House. **US SENATE**52 Republicans +1 (+1 from Democrats)46 Democrats -1 Read more…

2016 Election Prediction Results

November 20, 2016 Samuel Bassett

In January, I made a series of predictions about the 2016 election.  Some where practically spot on, while others were a little bit off.  Here is a quick report card. Seat by Seat: A Unlike nearly every major media source (including both Read more…

Election 2016 Predictions

November 7, 2016 Samuel Bassett

It is time for the 2016 Election Day predictions…  Feel free to play along with the 2016 Pick ’em. These selections are based on a model in progress that places a heavy influence on both race and industrial change since the 1990s. Read more…